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债收益率（比如10年期）是方向性利好。此外，大型银行公开（或被市场解读为）在做“降息/利率下行”布局，会强化低利率预期，对美债收益率曲线整体偏利好（尤其是前端，长端看“市场预期+期限溢价”共同作用）。　　从“CME美联储观察工具”的统计来看，利率期货交易员们普遍押注美联储2026年将降息2次，预计累计降息50基点。作为对比，摩根大通的经济学家团队则在近期发布的年度报告中表示，预计美联储明年可能仅仅

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